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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. During an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still